Contents page 1 — It’s over with the quasi-alone rule page 2 — Are polarized the U.S. is now even stronger? On a page read
a Lot of money has been lost in our time, who has bet on Election outcomes – see the US Präsidentenkür 2016 or the Brexit Referendum. The Washington Post had said at the time a “landslide” for Hillary Clinton; the White house went to Donald Trump. In the UK, the polls were wrong also, had reported the previous day a majority in favour of the whereabouts.
The American Midterms – the midterm elections in the mid – term are the big exception. The polls were right: The Democrats would take the house, Republicans keep the Senate. So it was. The Surprise? The Democrats have settled with a gain of 26 Seats is considerably less, as experience teaches; the Republicans have expanded their majority in the Senate – a seat on three. Date: Wednesday Morning.
Nevertheless, it had the augurs this time. The mid-term elections are always a Referendum on the new President, where the electoral people’s disappointment and anger. Since the end of the war the President’s party has seats in all of the Midterms, with only two lost. Only Bill Clinton has brought the case in 1998 and George W. Bush in 2002. Both were different than Trump’s highly popular characters.
the curse of The mid-term elections is a factor; the story is repeated. A second factor is the level of satisfaction with the man in the White house. The rule of thumb: loses Who gets in the polls less than 50 percent approval, on average 37 seats, noted historian Niall Ferguson of Stanford University. Trump was shortly before the elections, 44 percent; consequently, the fate of the Republicans on the 6 was. November identified.
Third, the party preference beyond the individual candidates in the 435 constituencies: Who do you prefer, the “donkey” (the coat of arms animal of the Democrats) or the “elephants” (Republicans)? In order to keep himself, must not be a party historically more than 4.5 percentage points; this time, the Minus of the Republicans 8,5 fraud.
Ergo the predictable loss of the house of representatives, but Trump, in turn, historically, has not taken with his Tweet of the mouth: “Great win tonight. Thanks to all of you.” The “blue flood” (blue is the color of the Democrats) has proved to be a mild wave. The water is dyed purple – a mix of red (Republican) and blue (Democrats). This is the puzzle: in the face of hatred and anger that have piled up against Trump, would have to expose the Democrats to be stronger than with 26 Seats, only three more than for the majority in the house of representatives needed.