The Boardroom of the US Central Bank is breathing historical Power. To the end walls emblazoned with a seal and a U.S. map from 1937. The eight-Meter-long mahogany table resting on a rug that swallowed up every step – the noise and the Chaos to remain in front of the door.
started But as Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, and his colleagues on Tuesday in this secure room in Washington, your two-day interest rate deliberations, it seemed hardly possible that the political honking outside to hide.
the “Wall Street Journal” (“WSJ said”) against a rate increase, as many expect, actually, this Wednesday. “Time for a Fed Pause”, and urged it with a view to the recent uncertainty in the stock markets and in the economy. “It makes sense to go slowly.”
And then President Donald Trump intervened, as so often in the past few weeks: “I hope that over there at the Fed” not “make a mistake”, he tweeted. “Good Luck!”
I hope the people over at the Fed wants to read yesterday’s Wall Street Journal Editorial before they make yet another mistake. So, dont let the market become any more illiquid than it already is. Stop with the 50 Bs. Feel the market, dont just go by meaningless numbers. Good luck!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) 18. December 2018,
happiness and, above all, skill is need Powell if he based his rate decision at the last Fed press conference of the year. Because of Trump and the “WSJ” in the core right: The yield curve could actually rise too quickly.
But even if that’s true: As Powell can make a decision, without giving the impression that it is Trump aware of the end – or the other way around, that he obeys him?
With this for the Fed’s existential question Powell wrestles since he took office as the Trumps desire a candidate in February. Because Trump holds a little bit of presidential restraint – what he proves not only with his tirades against the U.S. Department of justice, but also with its growing pressure on Powell.
the Fed’s Headquarters in Washington.
Trump is not the first President to bully the Fed. But he is the first to do this so openly and shamelessly self-serving: He began to criticize Powell in the Moment, as the clouds beginning to gather over the markets and the economy. Because nothing bothers him more than look bad – at least in his world, he keeps all of the achievements themselves, but failures always blame others.
In this case, that would be the Fed raising interest rates since the end of 2015, again gently, to avoid from 0.25 to least 2.25 per cent, to an overheating of the Economy. For months, Trump raging on Twitter and in Interviews: The Fed is “crazy”, “insane”, “out of control”. Whether he regret it, to have Powell nominated? “Maybe.”
Powell & co. respond in a nonchalant, at least on the outside: “the Political pressure is to play in money-market decisions, not a role,” said Fed Vice Richard Clarida clear the other day. “History shows that the independence of the Central Bank is important.”
But Trump brings the Fed is now in a fix. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) actually, the interest is now more time to raise. This would correspond to the roadmap, after the Fed ended its cheap money Experiment, with which they had supported the world economy since the financial crisis.
Trump and Powell
Per quarter should increase the key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, to reach mid-2019 to three per cent, which is considered “neutral” territory – neither too high nor too low. But what happened then-and had not expected the coffee grounds reader at the Constitution Avenue.
trump’s alleged “economic miracle” turned out to be a Pump-built Potemkin village. Although the unemployment rate fell to a record low, a result of the policy of Trumps predecessor Barack Obama. Also, the economic growth is remarkable. However, the investment Bank Goldman Sachs, is expected will be slow to 2019 “significantly” – even without the help of the Fed.
Because the Boom is based mostly on legislative Doping as Trumps tax reform, in turn, is often only the big capitalists, corporations and shareholders benefit. The areas of the economy weaken again, the rising cost of credit at first feel, for example, the automotive and construction industries.
the property prices suddenly fall. In addition, trump’s Twitter trade war has consequences, not only for the U.S. car maker General Motors.
At the same time, it lacks anchors, thanks to Republican deregulation measures to Rescue, should falter the System. “I worry that there could be a repetition of the financial crisis,” said Powell’s predecessor, Janet Yellen last week.
Such Concerns also the markets of infect in the meantime. The Dow Jones fell on Monday to its lowest level since April, before recovering on Monday. “Get out of here,” warned Alan Greenspan had headed the Fed in the past, the investor on CNN – it will not be better, but only worse.
Therefore, could act as a re-increase in the interest rate is actually destabilizing. What to do? So or so, Powell had to make it clear in his press conference that he let nothing of Trump to say, told the “WSJ” – but admitted: “It’s not going to stop Trump.”