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Britain’s economy is heading in the economically worst years since the world economic crisis – as much as the British chamber of Commerce has now for sure, in spite of all the uncertainties of how exactly the UK will leave the EU.
Exactly this uncertainty has, however, already today, consequences for the British economy, writes the Association in its current economic forecast : For 2018 is therefore to be expected that with a growth in the gross domestic product of 1.2 percent, and for 2019 from 1.3 percent.
Many companies have invested at the moment, because it was unclear how Britain’s relationship with the EU will in the future. The country wants to leave at the end of March 2019 from the European Union. The weakness of the pound heat in addition, Inflation, what is the purchasing power of the consumer narrower.
“Not a good Deal,” says the British economy
And: if there is a disorderly, a “hard” Brexit, the consequences could be for the economy even worse.
a good three months before the planned withdrawal of the dispute on the manner of the farewell continues unabated. The chances are that the Prime Minister Theresa May is bringing the Brussels agreement negotiated through Parliament, and are considered to be low. Also, the previously agreed Deal instills the company is not Confidence – because the Phase of the further negotiations and, hence, the uncertainty would be prolonged.
A accidentally to the press, was E-Mail the UK’s largest CBI recently revealed the discomfort. “This is not a good Deal,” wrote Brexit expert Nicole Sykes to a colleague. The floating state makes major investments impossible. Still not banned the risk of a Brexit, without agreement, forcing many in the production and trade, supplies and create emergency plans. In October, said 80 per cent of UK companies , the Brexit have had a negative effect on their investment decisions. This costs money and ties up capacities.
Two billion euros for farmer costs for the German car?
German companies are affected. Bosch , for example, has made an investment of 39 million euros (35 million pounds) in the construction of a new UK regional Central back, said a spokesman.
in many cases. “For a lot of investment, the train has left the station probably now already,” says Ulrich Hoppe, managing Director of the German-British chamber of industry and Commerce in London. “Certain things that I can do under the circumstances, somewhere else, in a foreseeable and stable regulatory environment, which I’m doing now somewhere else.”
For the case of an unregulated Brexit, the German chambers of industry and Commerce (DIHK) estimates for German companies with up to 10 million additional customs declarations per year, and more than 200 million Euro of additional cost only through the Customs red tape . “The actual duties might be yet to come: Alone for the German car exports more loads of around two billion euros in the year, then threaten.”
The authorities in the United Kingdom are hardly prepared to prevent a mess in Dover, when customs declarations and inspections would be necessary. “Just-in-Time production and supply chains are at stake,” said DIHK President Eric Schweitzer. The unclear situation at the Brexit would lead to a massive uncertainty of the company – in a currently existing trend towards an increasingly unstable economic environment. “So that has a concrete impact. Because there is no clarity, can’t prepare the company really on the Brexit. On whole value chains.”
British car companies go abroad
Sensitive Goods such as food and drugs could be unusable, fear experts. That’s why the warehouses are bursting, especially for chilled and frozen food in the UK, in the meantime, from all of the seams. It was fully booked, warned the head of the industry Association Food and Drink Federation (FDF), Ian Wright, in front of a parliamentary Committee at the end of November.
even now difficult of the Brexit wrangling, the British car maker are affected . A survey conducted by the British industry Association SMMT, already half of the members have taken due to the uncertainty of damage. A third has postponed domestic investment or blown off. Ten percent each reported to have a capacity abroad, or the number of employees reduced shifts.
BMW announced that a planned production break in its Mini plant in Oxford to the time immediately after the leaving the EU on the 29. To move in March. Jaguar Land Rover handle to measures such as short-time working and Jobst, a decline in demand cushion.
The government now admits that the Brexit no matter how he looks like at the end of concrete will damage the economy. Hardly the talk of the alleged “Brexit dividend”- the 350 million pounds per week, the Brexit-a champion of Boris Johnson on the side of a red bus, had to print and should come to the national health service NHS.
Four percent less economic output by 2030
Instead, the Brexit is costing the British Treasury today. According to the latest estimates, the uncertainty during the tough negotiations, the economic strength of the country since the Referendum in 2016 to two percent smaller than it would otherwise have been the case. A think tank estimated the damage to the Chancellor of the exchequer in the summer to 500 million pounds per week.
The respected National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimates that the UK will be economic power in 2030, four percent smaller than without leakage. However, this was still a very conservative estimate, it said.
If you consider only the economy, show the analysis shows clearly that to bring in the EU remain a better outcome for the UK would, said a few weeks ago the British Chancellor of the exchequer, Philip Hammond. To reverse this insight does not lead so far.
Video: The strange rituals in the house of Commons
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