This is a new survey* on the impact of social measures and tax Emmanuel Macron on the purchasing power that is likely to stoke the controversy. From administrative data and surveys, the economists of the Institute of public policies (IPP) carried out simulations to measure the impact of government policy on the disposable income of households per consumption unit, that is to say, taking into account the size of the household (number of children), from a representative sample of the population.
Made in the perspective of the examination of the draft budget 2019 at the Meeting, this work scientific, non-partisan, has the purpose of ” clarifying the democratic debate “, explained the economist Daniel Cohen, Paris School of economics, during a conference presentation of the results.
By breaking down the population into 100 categories of income level, the study of the PPIS shows that these are the households that will come out losers of the cocktail of measures concocted by the government in 2018 and 2019, as well as the 20 % of wealthiest households. In this last category, however, the 1 % richest take their pin of the game. Due to the elimination of the tax on wealth (ISF) converted into income tax only on the real estate asset (IFA), and – to a lesser extent – to the single tax of 30% on capital income, they are going to win nearly 6 % of disposable income per consumption unit. What reinforce the image of the president of the very rich next to Emmmanuel Macron by the left opposition. According to the majority, the disappearance of the ISF should allow France to be aligned with the majority of european countries, or the ISF does not exist, in order to curb the tax exile and to encourage investment in the French economy. A ” bet uncertain “, according to the economists of the IPP.
The government’s policy will also be positive for the middle classes, notably through the decline of the housing tax and the decrease in wage contributions (see illustration below).
retirees, the big losers
This distribution of gains and losses is heavily influenced by the weight of the increase in the price of tobacco and fuel, on the budget of a poor family, who will also be impacted by the quasi-gel (+ 0.3%), from 2019, family benefits, retirement pensions and housing allowances.
These results can also be explained in part by the losses recorded by the retirees, the big losers of the tax policy of Emmanuel Macron. Apart from the 1 % wealthiest of them, all the pensioners, irrespective of their income category, are losers, except for a few at the bottom of the scale of the distribution, thanks to the appreciation of the minimum old-age pension.
Read our article purchasing Power : nearly eight retirees on ten losers in 2020
All of the assets in use (see illustration below) will, however, be winners thanks to the policy of Emmanuel Macron, except the 10 % of more modest means, who will lose very slightly because they are impacted by the freezing of benefits, as well as by increases in tobacco and fuel. It is obviously an average : for those who don’t have cars or who do not smoke would probably be the winners, because the price of tobacco weighs relatively more on the budget of the poorest.
It should also be noted that a portion of the losses calculated do not reflect a decrease in net income, but a lesser appreciation of this income compared to what it would have been if no measures had been decided and, therefore, if benefits had been uprated as much as the prices rise, as is the indexation rule.
An gain is very limited for the smicards
The IPP has also tried to find out if the president’s promise Macron to promote the work that was to be held. It was seen that the assets are virtually all winners of its policy. But for low-income workers ‘ the minimum wage, that benefit from the boost on the premium of activity, the gain will remain very limited, which is 30 euros per month at the end of 2019 (see below). The government has quietly frozen the revaluation annual which would have had to intervene in April 2019 in addition to the boost exceptional 20 euros per month from October 2018, and the one expected in October 2019. The rate of accumulation of this premium activity with labour income has also slightly been revised downwards for budgetary reasons.
The IPP shows that the geographical distribution of the gains associated with the decline of the housing tax is variable, this tax being a local tax, whose rate is fixed by the common, and very dependent on rental values obsolete calculated in the 70’s.
* Budget 2019, the impact on households, Mahdi Ben Jelloul, Antoine area of bozio, Thomas Douenne, Brice Fabre and Claire Leroy, Institute for public policies (IPP)
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