the back of the Union to the right, when on Friday, Friedrich Merz is elected? Everything will continue to go on if the 1001 delegates at the CDU party Congress in Hamburg for Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer should decide? The answer is in both cases: hardly.

In 18 years, a man and an adult growing up. After 18 years of an era – the Era of Merkel ends well for the CDU. At the same time, the CDU was able to draw on their quasi-genetically programmed-and long-ever renewable self-assurance as the natural party of government. The question is whether it can begin something New.

Angela Merkel will hold the Congress in her last speech as Chairman of the CDU. And if not mistaken, it Must then-finally-way-Chancellor, upgrade to the most popular politician in Germany, as many of the Former given. Only Merkel will be there, in their main role, as Chancellor, after a year of internal political afflictions back on the big stage. Because 2019 will be a European year.

For Merkel’s party is at the weekend, an Era and a rearguard action to begin the withdrawal of combat as – probably – the last people’s party. Whether the CDU’s success depends at least as much of Merkel as the New one at the top.

The Grand coalition forces, the two parties in a downward spiral

Each and every party Chairman will be faced with the claim that the CDU should, in future, show more profile, or even profile. Because in many of the coalition negotiations this year, you could always say what or whereas FDP, Green or (most of the time anyway), the SPD were in the CDU, you asked meanwhile: What do we want?

What the CDU wants to, she will discuss now, perhaps, more open. What you can do, is in the coalition agreement. It depends on what is agreed by the CDU and the SPD or where you are willing on the Agreed. As long as the Grand coalition is therefore to continue, threatens the CDU now the same danger as in the SPD that explains what would actually be good – and why you then do something else. The special risks of each of the two promising candidate brings to the table: In the case of Merz, are his own supporters, who are largely brute to it as the bearer of hope himself. In the case of Kramp-Karrenbauer, there is the danger that the will to Discuss, to party, to caress, for self-purpose.

Both prisoners of the Grand coalition. It will show that Merkel was right in her assessment that the party presidency and chancellorship in a Hand, or at least closely related. Because the Problem of the government is the inability of their Ministers, on the contrary, in the Cabinet sit – contrary to a widespread opinion, pretty good people, but their internal arithmetic: A weaker SPD, the CDU forces to further concessions. Also, who is no opponent of large coalitions, in General, and this was specifically, The Grand coalition will force the mainstream parties into a downward spiral, you fight more and more separated and fall together deeper and deeper. Now this could be speeded up, Because the New at the top of the CDU profiles and more, the more it will demoralise the SPD. And the more the SPD profiles – what she’s up to Yes, urgent –, the faster the new CDU threatens to be messed up.

This article dates back to the TIME no 51/2018. Here you can read the entire issue.

Between the government and the Opposition would have the effect of such interaction is the long-awaited revival. Within a government, a dynamic that could overwhelm the inventor of the asymmetric demobilization threatens, namely, a symmetrical centrifugation.

Everything will therefore depend on whether Angela Merkel achieved what she has not done in the first start-up: a self-determined, voluntary departure as Chancellor, making the journey either free for new situations or for new elections. Merkel has to choose a reason that suits you, and a point in time, the needs of Europe.

as long As the CDU remains in your Hand even if you want to perhaps the least.

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