a Little time? At the end of text there is a summary.

the situation is Clear, control, order: All of the has promised U.S. President Donald Trump, when he announced in mid-December, American soldiers from Syria to deduct. Instead, he has increased the Chaos in the Region.

The trump admitted, at last, even the previous special envoy for the fight against the terrorist militia “Islamic state” (IS), who had abandoned his Post in Protest against the deduction. “We have no Plan,” said Brett McGurk, at the weekend.

Between the international actors, has started a give-and-take about the future of Syria, which is now, as the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets on Wednesday with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow, in the next round.

US wants a buffer zone in Northern Syria

The United States wants to establish a buffer zone in the North-East of Syria, from the Kurdish militia YPG and was formerly a Partner of the United States in the fight against IS draws back. This area should be secured from local, predominantly Arab forces, together with British and French.

Alone: That is wishful thinking. So, no Arab troops in sight, which would be militarily in the situation at all. Erdogan is open to the idea of a buffer zone. He insists, however, that this is guarded by Turkish soldiers, what to reject, in turn, the YPG.

Syria

The situation in the Region around the Northern Syrian town of Manbij is currently anything but stable: the attack showed recently at a Restaurant in the city, in which four U.S. soldiers were killed, and the suicide attack on a U.S. patrol on Monday.

How to do it in the North of Syria, decides no longer in Washington. Trump has made his country through its zigzag course ridiculous. It is crucial, what would Putin. In the coming weeks, Russia wants to prevent a new Syria-trilateral summit with Iran and Turkey in the country.

Turkey also wants to expand the use in North Syria and Russia on the other hand is

Moscow, Erdogan’s security interests in the Turkish-Syrian border region. At the end of March there will be elections in Turkey in addition, locally, in which the Turkish President has something to show.

Recently, Erdogan has left no doubt where his priorities lie: He wants to expel the YPG, which he believes to be the Syrian offshoot of the guerrilla organization PKK from the border region. “We will not rest until we have put the terrorist swamp in our neighborhood dry,” wrote Erdogan’s media consultant, Fahrettin Altun, recently on Twitter.

a year Ago, marched by Turkish soldiers in the Syrian city of Afrin, which had until then been under the rule of the YPG. Erdogan would extend the use to the North-East. If and when it comes to a further Turkish military operation, but especially from Russia.

Turkish Offensive in Afrin 2018

A Turkish great offensive is not in Moscow’s interest. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at his annual press conference, the importance of the cohesion of the Syrian territory and its sovereignty – and, therefore, the role of the Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad. The Kremlin has no interest in Turkey is still more in the neighboring country.

The Turkish news Agency Anadolu widespread just images that show Russian soldiers in joint patrols with YPG fighters. In Parallel, the Kurds are negotiating with the dictator Assad, which is located in Moscow.

Moscow urges Ankara to comply with the Idlib agreement

Russia will not agree to the use of Turkey against YPG only if Ankara is too far-reaching concessions in Idlib ready. The jihadist group Haiat Tahrir al-sham (HTS) has taken in the past few weeks, the control over the Idlib province in Northwest Syria and parts of neighboring Hama.

HTS-fighter (archive)

In Moscow, it is from this development is anything other than impressed. Repeatedly we were warned in the Ministry of foreign Affairs before the more than a thousand injuries in September, Russia and Turkey concluded a truce.

the Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said in the Meeting with Erdogan of the “provocations of terrorists”. To combat this, was an “important building block” of the Memorandum, he said. It was a message to Turkey. The government in Ankara had pledged to take care of the withdrawal of the jihadists.

On the 17. September had negotiated Erdogan and Putin in Sochi for a ceasefire for the province of Idlib:

All the insurgents should withdraw their weapons from a security zone, HTS-fighters strip out of the box. In return, the Deal would be Russia and the Assad Regime, a planned major offensive blow.

The Turkish government has made contact in the course of the war in Syria, a number of returns: they supported the jihadist group al-Nusra, which renamed itself later in HTS, in the war against Assad to fight them now as a terrorist organization.

New Syria Deal between Turkey and Russia?

Nor did the Pact, with the proliferation of jihadists, an Intervention in Russia is but more likely. Putin could conclude the agreement of September, softening, and a new Deal with Erdogan:

The Kremlin boss could give Erdogan greater control over some of the Kurdish areas in Northern Syria, including in the context of a new limited surgery. In return, Ankara would withdraw its troops from Idlib, and the way for Russia and the Syrian Regime. The result is a new mass Exodus from the North of Syria in Turkey would, then.

In Moscow will have to explain to Erdogan, Putin, what he can provide in the fight against the jihadist group, HTS at all.

Summary: has announced Since US President, Trump the withdrawal of American troops from Syria, determined Russia permanently, the course of the war. On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin negotiated with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan about how to do it in the North of the country. Possible result: A Deal that will trigger a mass Exodus out of Idlib and for the Kurds to be disastrous – it could be.

staff: Christoph Sydow